Not having credible data for job numbers, the government is now thinking of quarterly employment figures, for only urban areas.
Most developed countries have monthly jobs data, seen as a key economic indicator, at least in times of economic turmoil. However, in India, employment data comes out once in five years, from the National Sample Survey Organisation ( NSSO ) and annually from the Labour Bureau of India. These numbers also raise questions on the accuracy of the data.
According to the government’s former chief statistician, Pronab Sen, now a principal advisor in the Planning Commission , the methodology to collect frequent jobs data will be different from the household survey done by NSSO till now, which takes a long time. It will be through panel surveys, instead of cross-sectional surveys.
“Here, the idea is to take a bunch of sample houses, track these over five quarters and then replace a fifth of those with another random sample,” he said, adding this would reduce the time frame as it would only track changes in employment. The household survey takes a long time but here the set of households remains the same; therefore, the frequency reduces.
The pilot would be conducted in urban areas. However, the ministry of statistics and prorgamme implementation is yet to decide when the surveys will be started. “I can't commit to a timeframe. I need Plan money for this; if it is to be a formal product, it needs resources. Once the plan is approved, for each individual item, a particular procedure for consultation and approval has to be approved, “ said TCA Anant , chief statistician.
The draft document for the 12th five-year Plan (2012-13 to 2016-17) has already been cleared by the cabinet and will go to the National Development Council for approval towards the end of next month.
But can India also get monthly data? “Monthly will be very difficult,” said Anant. In India, a large part of the workforce is in a variety of self-employment or as casual labour. Neither falls in the employment exchange type of coverage.
“We will still need to do surveys and surveys are inherently slower than administrative data,” said Anant.
He said it was technically feasible to come out with quarterly employment surveys for urban areas. In developed countries, since 85 per cent of jobs are in the organised sector, the data on hiring and dismissals come from companies. In India, only eight per cent of the workforce is in the organised sector.
Sen argues that the quarterly surveys will also be less expensive than the household surveys.
In India, employment data has always come under a scanner, as questions are raised on its accuracy. The Labour Bureau of India showed unemployment of 3.8 per cent, while a NSSO survey showed this at two per cent for 2009-10.
Since the global financial crisis had ripple effects on India in 2008-09, the Labour Bureau has also been coming out with surveys on the effect of deceleration in growth on eight labour-intensive sectors—textiles, leather, metals, automobiles, gems & jewellery, transport, information technology/business process outsouring, handlooms/powerlooms.
http://www.business-standard.com/india/news/likewest-govt-mulls-quarterly-jobs-data-for-urban-areas/493548/
Most developed countries have monthly jobs data, seen as a key economic indicator, at least in times of economic turmoil. However, in India, employment data comes out once in five years, from the National Sample Survey Organisation ( NSSO ) and annually from the Labour Bureau of India. These numbers also raise questions on the accuracy of the data.
According to the government’s former chief statistician, Pronab Sen, now a principal advisor in the Planning Commission , the methodology to collect frequent jobs data will be different from the household survey done by NSSO till now, which takes a long time. It will be through panel surveys, instead of cross-sectional surveys.
“Here, the idea is to take a bunch of sample houses, track these over five quarters and then replace a fifth of those with another random sample,” he said, adding this would reduce the time frame as it would only track changes in employment. The household survey takes a long time but here the set of households remains the same; therefore, the frequency reduces.
The pilot would be conducted in urban areas. However, the ministry of statistics and prorgamme implementation is yet to decide when the surveys will be started. “I can't commit to a timeframe. I need Plan money for this; if it is to be a formal product, it needs resources. Once the plan is approved, for each individual item, a particular procedure for consultation and approval has to be approved, “ said TCA Anant , chief statistician.
The draft document for the 12th five-year Plan (2012-13 to 2016-17) has already been cleared by the cabinet and will go to the National Development Council for approval towards the end of next month.
But can India also get monthly data? “Monthly will be very difficult,” said Anant. In India, a large part of the workforce is in a variety of self-employment or as casual labour. Neither falls in the employment exchange type of coverage.
“We will still need to do surveys and surveys are inherently slower than administrative data,” said Anant.
He said it was technically feasible to come out with quarterly employment surveys for urban areas. In developed countries, since 85 per cent of jobs are in the organised sector, the data on hiring and dismissals come from companies. In India, only eight per cent of the workforce is in the organised sector.
Sen argues that the quarterly surveys will also be less expensive than the household surveys.
In India, employment data has always come under a scanner, as questions are raised on its accuracy. The Labour Bureau of India showed unemployment of 3.8 per cent, while a NSSO survey showed this at two per cent for 2009-10.
Since the global financial crisis had ripple effects on India in 2008-09, the Labour Bureau has also been coming out with surveys on the effect of deceleration in growth on eight labour-intensive sectors—textiles, leather, metals, automobiles, gems & jewellery, transport, information technology/business process outsouring, handlooms/powerlooms.
http://www.business-standard.com/india/news/likewest-govt-mulls-quarterly-jobs-data-for-urban-areas/493548/
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